Wuliangye (000858): Beautiful 3Q results are expected in the coming year

Wuliangye 天津夜网 (000858): Beautiful 3Q results are expected in the coming year

Summary and suggestions: Event: The company achieved total operating income of 37.1 billion in the first three quarters, an increase of 27% every year, and a net profit of 12.5 billion, an increase of 32%.

Estimated 3Q to achieve 99.

500 million, an annual increase of 27%, net profit of 3.2 billion, an annual increase of 35%.

3Q results were in line with expectations.

  The growth rate of 3Q revenue was slightly higher than our expectation. It is expected that the delivery rate of 3Q will increase. Considering that the Spring Festival in 2020 is earlier, stocking in the Spring Festival will begin from 4Q, and the volume and price will increase in the coming year.

3Q final receipts surplus 58.

6.5 billion, an increase of 35% from the previous month, confirming the continued confidence of dealers, and also shows that the company has expanded smoothly in blank areas.

3Q operating net cash inflow 78.

300 million, the speed up of the payment, related to the company’s policy adjustments and new dealers’ large sums.

The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 73.

81%, rising by 0 every year.

34pct, 3Q gross margin fell by more than 1.

4pct is expected to be affected by increased production worker budgets and rising costs such as packaging materials.

  The company promotes the adjustment of organizational structure, promotes digital transformation, “controls the profits and shares” to achieve channel segmentation, grid development, optimization of market resource allocation, expansion of 7 marketing centers to 21 marketing theaters, and 61 marketing basesIntensive cultivation and improve marketing efficiency.

At present, the phenomenon of cross-regional channeling has improved.

Affected by the upgrade of the marketing system and the increase in terminal costs, the increase in sales staff increased the sales expense ratio by 3Q2.

At 23pct, the absolute value of management expenses fell slightly, but due to the rapid growth in revenue, the management expense ratio dropped by 1.

51pct, comprehensive cost rate rose by 0.

66 points to 16.

11%.

  The 3Q tax base and surcharge rate decrease by 4 every year.

1pct, affected by the higher base due to the repayment of taxes in the same period last year.

  We are still optimistic about the improvement of the company’s brand competitiveness through the 失败:重查 combing of product structure and channel governance, maintaining long-term profit forecast and “buy” investment rating.

It is expected that the company will achieve a net profit of 173 from 2019 to 2020, respectively.

4 billion, 214.

400 million, an annual increase of 30% and 24%, respectively, EPS is 4.

47 yuan and 5.

52 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 29 times and 24 times.

  Risk warning: terminal mobile sales are less than expected, food safety issues